Lessons

pos_20260826_SPY_bull_put_spread_ebf0dcde

SPY bull_put_spread, closed external, P&L unknown (not self-resolved). Credit assignment: not scored (D-018 #9: not self-resolved, or P&L unavailable).

SPY ~766.5, near highs with low IV (12-15%) and a quiet, mildly upward two-day drift. Short 755 put is ~1.5% OTM (~20 delta) with 7 DTE, so theta plus the OTM buffer carries the trade. Thesis is invalidated if SPY breaks below ~755 (short strike) before 2026-09-02.

pos_20260827_NVDA_bull_call_spread_01a75fab

NVDA bull_call_spread, closed external, P&L unknown (not self-resolved). Credit assignment: not scored (D-018 #9: not self-resolved, or P&L unavailable).

NVDA reported a blowout Q2 last night and re-rated +7.3% to ~225.8 with broad sell-side PT raises ($300/$330/$400); the event binary is now behind it and semi/QQQ ETF inflows are running. I expect the gap to hold and drift modestly higher (+1.5%) into 2026-09-03, finishing 220-245. Invalidated if NV

pos_20260901_SPY_bear_put_spread_223db600

SPY bear_put_spread, closed time_stop, P&L -29.9%. Credit assignment: prediction resolved; block credit deferred to attribution at the thesis horizon (D-091 - crediting on P&L here would let a lucky win reinforce a wrong view before the view was ever tested).

From 762.35, SPY should remain under 763.4 and drift toward roughly 758-761 by September 2 as oil-driven inflation pressure, hawkish Fed commentary, and rising hike odds prevent a rebound. A recovery above 765.5 invalidates the short-horizon repricing thesis.

pos_20260902_NVDA_bull_call_spread_c1bca8b8

NVDA bull_call_spread, closed external, P&L +51.7%. Credit assignment: prediction resolved; block credit deferred to attribution at the thesis horizon (D-091 - crediting on P&L here would let a lucky win reinforce a wrong view before the view was ever tested).

NVDA should hold above 218 and rebound modestly toward 222-224 by the September 3 close as post-earnings AI demand support outweighs semiconductor tariff and macro pressure. A trade below 218 invalidates the premise.

pos_20260902_NVDA_bull_call_spread_7251e91e

NVDA bull_call_spread, closed external, P&L +71.5%. Credit assignment: prediction resolved; block credit deferred to attribution at the thesis horizon (D-091 - crediting on P&L here would let a lucky win reinforce a wrong view before the view was ever tested).

From $224.15, NVDA should hold post-earnings support above $218 and close between $222 and $232 on September 4, with modest upside toward $227 as AI-demand support outweighs macro pressure. A trade below $218 invalidates the premise.

pos_20260902_NVDA_bull_call_spread_cf437fa5

NVDA bull_call_spread, closed external, P&L +54.2%. Credit assignment: nothing scored - no measured P&L, so both the prediction and the credit would be a guess.

From $225.35, NVDA should hold post-earnings support above $218 and finish between $218 and $232 on September 4, with modest drift toward $227 as AI-demand support outweighs macro pressure. A trade below $218 invalidates the premise; September 4 payrolls are acknowledged gap risk.

pos_20260903_PLTR_bear_put_spread_1e5dde36

PLTR bear_put_spread, closed profit_target, P&L +63.3%. Credit assignment: prediction resolved; block credit deferred to attribution at the thesis horizon (D-091 - crediting on P&L here would let a lucky win reinforce a wrong view before the view was ever tested).

From about $183.22, PLTR should retrace into $168.50-$178.60 by the September 11 close as the PwC partnership pop fails to immediately validate incremental contracted revenue and payroll/inflation risk pressures high-multiple software. A trade above $187.50 invalidates the near-term fade thesis.

pos_20260903_SPY_reverse_iron_condor_e4f1e563

SPY reverse_iron_condor, closed external, P&L -10.2%. Credit assignment: prediction resolved; block credit deferred to attribution at the thesis horizon (D-091 - crediting on P&L here would let a lucky win reinforce a wrong view before the view was ever tested).

From 769.2, SPY should realize roughly 12% annualized volatility through September 11 as payrolls and rate/geopolitical risks break the recent low-volatility consolidation; the position needs SPY outside roughly 762.45-777.55 at expiry. The premise is invalidated if the event passes and SPY remains

pos_20260903_NVDA_bull_call_spread_7ab18bb3

NVDA bull_call_spread, closed profit_target, P&L +62.7%. Credit assignment: prediction resolved; block credit deferred to attribution at the thesis horizon (D-091 - crediting on P&L here would let a lucky win reinforce a wrong view before the view was ever tested).

From about $230.2, NVDA should close between $232 and $245 on September 11 as post-earnings AI-demand support and the Hugging Face acquisition sustain modest upside. A trade below $225 invalidates the continuation premise; September 4 payrolls are acknowledged binary risk.

pos_20260904_NVDA_bull_call_spread_7ff00419

NVDA bull_call_spread, closed stop_loss, P&L -67.0%. Credit assignment: prediction resolved; block credit deferred to attribution at the thesis horizon (D-091 - crediting on P&L here would let a lucky win reinforce a wrong view before the view was ever tested).

From $233.58, NVDA should hold above $232 and close at or below $245 on September 11, with strong AI-capex demand sustaining modest upside after payroll risk passed without broad-market damage. A trade below $228 invalidates the continuation premise by breaking the post-payroll breakout area.