What it is

AIG is a global insurer focused primarily on commercial and personal property-and-casualty coverage.

Bull case

Steve Eisman's assessment that AIG is 'really, really cheap,' with roughly 17% forecast upside, supplies a valuation-dislocation thesis. Very low near-term recession odds provide a comparatively benign macro backdrop for testing that thesis. Low valuation and the benign cited recession outlook support the longer-term thesis, but the five-day setup lacks a defined catalyst. Price is below SMA20 and SMA50, while the bootstrap gives equal 6% probabilities to gains or losses of at least 5%.

Bear case

The valuation discount persists because no near-term event forces a rerating.

People

(not researched - discovery pass)

Environment

Verdict: pass. Evidence: Steve Eisman supports AIG, predicting about 17% upside as a cheap investment.; Prediction market: 8% probability of a US recession by the end of 2026.; Prediction market: 28% probability of a US recession by the end of 2027.