HOOD · Bull Call Spread
HOOD will close between $124.79 and $132.10 on September 15 as expanded prediction-market inventory and strength in crypto activity support near-term engagement, while high volatility limits confidence in a larger move.
Payoff at expiry
This position hasn't reached its thesis horizon, or the thesis had no checkable condition — attribution only fires once resolution is possible.
The thesis
Claim: HOOD will close between $124.79 and $132.10 on September 15 as expanded prediction-market inventory and strength in crypto activity support near-term engagement, while high volatility limits confidence in a larger move.
Resolves: 2026-09-15, band [124.79, 132.1]
Expected drift: +4.5%
From about $121.52, HOOD should close between $124.79 and $132.10 by September 15 as the Crypto.com prediction-market expansion and resilient crypto activity support engagement. A trade below $118 invalidates the near-term continuation premise because it breaks recent support despite the catalysts.
Why this trade
Opened a HOOD Sep 18 $121/$130 bull call spread:
- Quantity: 14 spreads
- Limit debit: $3.31
- Status: Pending
- Maximum risk: $4,634
- Confidence: 53%
- Thesis horizon: September 15; target $124.79–$132.10
- Exits recorded: −50% stop, +60% target, September 15 time stop, underlying stop below $118
The simulator estimated +$127 EV per spread under the +4.5% drift view. This bullish exposure also partially offsets the book’s existing net bearish market delta. Total defined-risk exposure would rise to approximately $19,964 (16.2% of equity) if filled.
Structures considered
| structure | entry cost | max profit | max loss | payoff ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD Sep18 121/130 bull call spread | $331.00 | $569.00 | $-331.00 | 1.56 | chosen |
| HOOD Sep18 122/130/135 broken-wing call butterfly | $188.00 | $612.00 | $-188.00 | 1.01 |
Sources
- muse —
inbox/opp_20260908_muse_bc25cfc65341 - muse —
inbox/opp_20260908_muse_eafcbc1d3026
Position details
Legs
| side | qty | symbol |
|---|---|---|
| buy | 14 | HOOD260918C00121000 |
| sell | 14 | HOOD260918C00130000 |
Exit rules
| rule | detail |
|---|---|
| stop_loss | basis position_mark, threshold -50.0% |
| profit_target | basis position_mark, threshold 60.0% |
| time_stop | days_before_expiry 3 |
| underlying_stop | direction below, level 118.0 |
Outcome
Open - this section fills in when the position resolves.