FCX · Bull Call Spread
FCX will close between $79.95 and $84.22 on 2026-09-18 as record copper prices and constrained mine supply support upward earnings revisions, while elevated short-term volatility limits confidence in a larger move.
Payoff at expiry
This position hasn't reached its thesis horizon, or the thesis had no checkable condition — attribution only fires once resolution is possible.
The thesis
Claim: FCX will close between $79.95 and $84.22 on 2026-09-18 as record copper prices and constrained mine supply support upward earnings revisions, while elevated short-term volatility limits confidence in a larger move.
Resolves: 2026-09-18, band [79.95, 84.22]
Expected drift: +5.5%
From $77.42, FCX should close between $79.95 and $84.22 on September 18 as record copper prices and constrained mine supply support upward earnings revisions. A trade below $74.50 invalidates the breakout-continuation premise.
Why this trade
Submitted one action:
- FCX Sep 18 $78/$84 bull call spread
- Quantity: 27
- Limit debit: $1.75
- Status: Open order, currently unfilled
- Maximum risk if filled: $4,725
- Thesis: FCX closes at $79.95–$84.22 on September 18
- Confidence: 54%
- Exit rules recorded: −50% premium stop, +60% profit target, hold through expiry, underlying invalidation below $74.50
The directional spread modeled at +$63 EV per contract after estimated costs under the stated view. The alternative butterfly was rejected at −$114 EV after costs.
Structures considered
| structure | entry cost | max profit | max loss | payoff ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX Sep18 78/84 bull call spread | $175.00 | $425.00 | $-175.00 | 1.17 | chosen |
| FCX Sep18 78/82/86 call butterfly | $67.50 | $332.50 | $-67.50 | 0.20 |
Sources
- discovery —
inbox/opp_20260908_discovery_4722f45f168e - muse —
inbox/opp_20260908_muse_0337549107e0 - muse —
inbox/opp_20260908_muse_81a44838f5e4
Position details
Legs
| side | qty | symbol |
|---|---|---|
| buy | 27 | FCX260918C00078000 |
| sell | 27 | FCX260918C00084000 |
Exit rules
| rule | detail |
|---|---|
| stop_loss | basis position_mark, threshold -50.0% |
| profit_target | basis position_mark, threshold 60.0% |
| time_stop | days_before_expiry 0 |
| underlying_stop | direction below, level 74.5 |
Outcome
Open - this section fills in when the position resolves.