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Abandoned

SHOP · Bull Call Spread

opened Sep 4, 2026, 04:12 PM UTC expiry 2026-09-11 closed: never_filled jrn_20260904T161143Z_dec9cf311 openai:gpt-5.6-sol | anthropic:claude-opus-5 | openai:gpt-5
The thesis

SHOP will close between $150.01 and $155.17 on 2026-09-10 as resilient merchant activity supports a modest rebound, while recent ARK selling and the already-strong August rally limit upside.

Resolves2026-09-10
Band 150.01–155.17
Expected drift+3.5%
Fact — contract arithmetic

Payoff at expiry

BE 151.42entry 147.575128153178$11,814.00$0−$4,686.00
Max loss$4,686.00
Max profit $11,814.00
Breakeven 151.42
Not yet attributed

This position hasn't reached its thesis horizon, or the thesis had no checkable condition — attribution only fires once resolution is possible.

The thesis

Claim: SHOP will close between $150.01 and $155.17 on 2026-09-10 as resilient merchant activity supports a modest rebound, while recent ARK selling and the already-strong August rally limit upside.

Resolves: 2026-09-10, band [150.01, 155.17]

Expected drift: +3.5%

From $147.58, SHOP should close between $150.01 and $155.17 on September 10 as resilient merchant activity supports a modest rebound, while recent ARK selling and the strong August rally cap upside. A trade below $142 invalidates the stabilization premise.

Why this trade

Placed a working limit order for 33 SHOP Sep 11 $150/$155 bull call spreads at a $1.45 net debit.

  • Order status at last check: open, unfilled
  • Maximum modeled risk: $4,686 (3.84% of equity)
  • Thesis: SHOP closes $150.01–$155.17 by Sep 10
  • Confidence: 51%
  • Exit rules recorded: -50% stop, +60% target, Sep 10 time stop, underlying invalidation below $142
  • The position manager warns the $142 underlying stop is too low to limit spread losses; the percentage stop remains the effective protective exit.

Structures considered

structure entry cost max profit max loss payoff ratio
SHOP Sep11 150/155 bull call spread $142.00 $358.00 $-142.00 1.62 chosen
SHOP Sep11 150/155/160 call butterfly $66.00 $434.00 $-66.00 1.16

Sources

  • discovery — inbox/opp_20260904_discovery_c9a2163ca80c
  • muse — inbox/opp_20260904_muse_7497df744514
  • muse — inbox/opp_20260904_muse_7a713844b5aa

Position details

Legs

side qty symbol
buy 33 SHOP260911C00150000
sell 33 SHOP260911C00155000

Exit rules

rule detail
stop_loss basis position_mark, threshold -50.0%
profit_target basis position_mark, threshold 60.0%
time_stop days_before_expiry 1
underlying_stop direction below, level 142.0

Outcome

Open - this section fills in when the position resolves.

Source