NVDA · Bull Call Spread
From $233.58, NVDA will hold above $232 and close at or below $245 on 2026-09-11, with AI-capex support sustaining modest upside after payroll risk passed without broad market damage.
Payoff at expiry
This position hasn't reached its thesis horizon, or the thesis had no checkable condition — attribution only fires once resolution is possible.
The thesis
Claim: From $233.58, NVDA will hold above $232 and close at or below $245 on 2026-09-11, with AI-capex support sustaining modest upside after payroll risk passed without broad market damage.
Resolves: 2026-09-11, band [232.0, 245.0]
Expected drift: +1.5%
From $233.58, NVDA should hold above $232 and close at or below $245 on September 11, with strong AI-capex demand sustaining modest upside after payroll risk passed without broad-market damage. A trade below $228 invalidates the continuation premise by breaking the post-payroll breakout area.
Why this trade
Opened a paper NVDA Sep 11 $235/$245 bull call spread:
- Quantity: 18 spreads
- Limit debit: $2.65
- Order status: Pending
- Maximum risk: approximately $4,734–$4,770 (3.8% of equity)
- Maximum profit: approximately $13,266
- Estimated view-adjusted EV: +$108 per spread after costs
- Confidence: 44%
Thesis: AI-capex support sustains modest upside, with NVDA closing between $232 and $245 on September 11. Payroll risk has passed without broad-market damage.
Recorded exits: +60% profit target, −50% premium stop, close one day before expiration, and thesis invalidation below $228. The $228 underlying stop will not itself limit spread losses because it lies below both strikes; the premium stop provides the actual loss control.
Structures considered
| structure | entry cost | max profit | max loss | payoff ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Sep11 235/245 bull call spread | $263.00 | $737.00 | $-263.00 | 2.01 | chosen |
| NVDA Sep11 232.5/237.5/242.5 call butterfly | $92.50 | $407.50 | $-92.50 | 1.73 |
Sources
- alpaca_news —
inbox/new_20260904T143528Z_alpaca_news_f9ae5f20
Position details
Legs
| side | qty | symbol |
|---|---|---|
| long | 18 | NVDA260911C00235000 |
| short | 18 | NVDA260911C00245000 |
Exit rules
| rule | detail |
|---|---|
| stop_loss | basis position_mark, threshold -50.0% |
| profit_target | basis position_mark, threshold 60.0% |
| time_stop | days_before_expiry 1 |
| underlying_stop | direction below, level 228.0 |
Outcome
Closed: stop_loss
Why: retry: a previous close attempt did not complete
Result: -67.0% of net entry cost