NVDA · Bull Call Spread
From about $230.2, NVDA should close between $232 and $245 on 2026-09-11 as post-earnings AI-demand support and the Hugging Face acquisition sustain modest upside, while a close below $225 would invalidate the continuation thesis.
Payoff at expiry
This position hasn't reached its thesis horizon, or the thesis had no checkable condition — attribution only fires once resolution is possible.
The thesis
Claim: From about $230.2, NVDA should close between $232 and $245 on 2026-09-11 as post-earnings AI-demand support and the Hugging Face acquisition sustain modest upside, while a close below $225 would invalidate the continuation thesis.
Resolves: 2026-09-11, band [232.0, 245.0]
Expected drift: +1.0%
From about $230.2, NVDA should close between $232 and $245 on September 11 as post-earnings AI-demand support and the Hugging Face acquisition sustain modest upside. A trade below $225 invalidates the continuation premise; September 4 payrolls are acknowledged binary risk.
Why this trade
Opened one position:
- NVDA Sep 11 $230/$240 bull call spread
- Quantity: 18 spreads
- Filled debit: $3.15 per spread
- Total debit / actual maximum loss: $5,670
- Maximum profit: $12,330
- Expiration breakeven: $233.15
Thesis: NVDA closes $232–$245 by September 11, supported by post-earnings AI demand and the Hugging Face acquisition. Conservative assumed drift was +1%; modeled profit probability was 46% with positive estimated value after costs.
Automated exits recorded:
- Profit target: +50%
- P&L stop: -50%
- Underlying invalidation: below $225
- Time stop: one day before expiration
The $225 underlying stop confirms thesis failure but may not materially limit structural loss; the -50% premium stop is the primary loss control. Existing SPY position was left unchanged.
Structures considered
| structure | entry cost | max profit | max loss | payoff ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA 230/240 bull call spread | $328.50 | $671.50 | $-328.50 | 1.69 | chosen |
| NVDA 230/235/240 call butterfly | $90.50 | $409.50 | $-90.50 | 2.11 | |
| NVDA 225/220 bull put spread | $-107.00 | $107.00 | $-393.00 | 0.30 |
Sources
- alpaca_news —
inbox/new_20260903T175314Z_alpaca_news_9ef4ddea
Position details
Legs
| side | qty | symbol |
|---|---|---|
| buy | 18 | NVDA260911C00230000 |
| sell | 18 | NVDA260911C00240000 |
Exit rules
| rule | detail |
|---|---|
| stop_loss | basis position_mark, threshold -50.0% |
| profit_target | basis position_mark, threshold 50.0% |
| time_stop | days_before_expiry 1 |
| underlying_stop | direction below, level 225.0 |
Outcome
Closed: profit_target
Why: retry: a previous close attempt did not complete
Result: +62.7% of net entry cost