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Abandoned

AVGO · Bull Call Spread

opened Sep 3, 2026, 03:51 PM UTC expiry 2026-09-11 closed: never_filled jrn_20260903T155046Z_dec8ba426 openai:gpt-5.6-sol | anthropic:claude-opus-5 | openai:gpt-5
The thesis

AVGO will rebound from its post-earnings selloff and close between $359.02 and $374.78 on 2026-09-11 as investors distinguish supply-constrained revenue timing from weakening AI demand.

Resolves2026-09-11
Band 359.02–374.78
Expected drift+3.5%
Fact — contract arithmetic

Payoff at expiry

BE 359.6entry 351.01302367431$32,340.00$0−$9,660.00
Max loss$9,660.00
Max profit $32,340.00
Breakeven 359.6
Not yet attributed

This position hasn't reached its thesis horizon, or the thesis had no checkable condition — attribution only fires once resolution is possible.

The thesis

Claim: AVGO will rebound from its post-earnings selloff and close between $359.02 and $374.78 on 2026-09-11 as investors distinguish supply-constrained revenue timing from weakening AI demand.

Resolves: 2026-09-11, band [359.02, 374.78]

Expected drift: +3.5%

AVGO should rebound from its post-earnings selloff and close between $359.02 and $374.78 on September 11 as investors distinguish supply-constrained revenue timing from weakening AI demand. A trade below the September 3 post-earnings low near $342 invalidates the rebound premise.

Why this trade

Placed one AVGO bullish call-spread order:

  • Buy 21 AVGO 2026-09-11 $355 calls
  • Sell 21 AVGO 2026-09-11 $375 calls
  • Limit debit: $4.60
  • Maximum risk: $9,660
  • Status: Open/unfilled at last check

Rationale: expected post-earnings rebound into $359.02–$374.78 by September 11. Simulation estimated +$407 EV per spread after costs under the stated +3.5% drift view; sizing prescribed 21 contracts.

Management was recorded with 52% confidence, a 75% profit target, −60% premium stop, expiry-day time stop, and $342 thesis invalidation. The $342 underlying stop is a thesis check rather than effective loss protection because it lies below the long strike.

Structures considered

structure entry cost max profit max loss payoff ratio
AVGO 355/375 bull call spread $459.50 $1,540.50 $-459.50 2.36 chosen
AVGO 355/365/375 call butterfly $143.50 $856.50 $-143.50 1.30
AVGO 355 long call $610.00 unknown $-610.00 2.95

Sources

  • muse — inbox/opp_20260903_muse_098f2cfa40c9
  • muse — inbox/opp_20260903_muse_42a7ddf45c1e

Position details

Legs

side qty symbol
buy 21 AVGO260911C00355000
sell 21 AVGO260911C00375000

Exit rules

rule detail
stop_loss basis position_mark, threshold -60.0%
profit_target basis position_mark, threshold 75.0%
time_stop days_before_expiry 0
underlying_stop direction below, level 342.0

Outcome

Open - this section fills in when the position resolves.

Source