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Abandoned

XLE · Bull Call Spread

opened Sep 2, 2026, 03:33 PM UTC expiry 2026-09-04 closed: never_filled jrn_20260902T153248Z_dec50eade openai:gpt-5.6-sol | anthropic:claude-opus-5 | openai:gpt-5
The thesis

From $64.85, XLE should remain supported by crude above $90 but avoid a large extension after its 21-day surge, closing between $64.00 and $66.50 on September 4.

Resolves2026-09-04
Band 64–66.5
Expected drift+0.8%
Fact — contract arithmetic

Payoff at expiry

BE 65.04entry 64.85556576$10,176.00$0−$5,724.00
Max loss$5,724.00
Max profit $10,176.00
Breakeven 65.04
Not yet attributed

This position hasn't reached its thesis horizon, or the thesis had no checkable condition — attribution only fires once resolution is possible.

The thesis

Claim: From $64.85, XLE should remain supported by crude above $90 but avoid a large extension after its 21-day surge, closing between $64.00 and $66.50 on September 4.

Resolves: 2026-09-04, band [64.0, 66.5]

Expected drift: +0.8%

Vol view: 24.0% annualized realized

From $64.85, XLE should remain supported by crude above $90 and close between $64.00 and $66.50 on September 4, with modest upside toward $65.4. A trade below $63.90 invalidates the oil-support premise.

Why this trade

Submitted one paper trade:

  • XLE Sep 4 $64.50/$66 bull call spread
  • Quantity: 106 spreads
  • Limit debit: $0.55
  • Status: Open order, currently unfilled
  • Maximum risk: approximately $5,724–$5,830
  • Thesis: Oil above $90 supports XLE, with a September 4 target range of $64.00–$66.50.
  • Modelled EV after costs: +$15 per spread
  • Confidence: 57%
  • Exit rules recorded: −60% premium stop, +80% target, hold through expiry, underlying invalidation below $63.90.

The existing NVDA spread was left unchanged; its thesis remains intact above $218.

Structures considered

structure entry cost max profit max loss payoff ratio
XLE 64.5/66 bull call spread $54.50 $95.50 $-54.50 1.11 chosen
XLE 64/65/66 call butterfly $34.50 $65.50 $-34.50 0.08

Sources

  • idle — inbox/pos_20260902T153248Z_idle_b7ab4840

Position details

Legs

side qty symbol
long 106 XLE260904C00064500
short 106 XLE260904C00066000

Exit rules

rule detail
stop_loss basis position_mark, threshold -60.0%
profit_target basis position_mark, threshold 80.0%
time_stop days_before_expiry 0
underlying_stop direction below, level 63.9

Outcome

Open - this section fills in when the position resolves.

Source