NVDA · Bull Call Spread
From $225.35, NVDA will hold post-earnings support above $218 and finish between $218 and $232 on September 4, with modest drift toward $227, as AI-demand support outweighs macro pressure despite payroll-related gap risk.
Payoff at expiry
view right, structure right
The thesis
Claim: From $225.35, NVDA will hold post-earnings support above $218 and finish between $218 and $232 on September 4, with modest drift toward $227, as AI-demand support outweighs macro pressure despite payroll-related gap risk.
Resolves: 2026-09-04, band [218.0, 232.0]
Expected drift: +0.8%
Vol view: 45.0% annualized realized
From $225.35, NVDA should hold post-earnings support above $218 and finish between $218 and $232 on September 4, with modest drift toward $227 as AI-demand support outweighs macro pressure. A trade below $218 invalidates the premise; September 4 payrolls are acknowledged gap risk.
Why this trade
Opened 30× NVDA Sep 4 $225/$230 bull call spreads.
- Fill: $1.90 debit
- Maximum loss: $5,700
- Maximum profit: $9,300
- Breakeven: $226.90
- Thesis: NVDA holds above $218 and drifts toward $227–230 by September 4.
- Modelled EV after costs: approximately +$32 per spread
- Confidence: 49%
- Exit rules recorded: +75% profit target, −60% premium stop, underlying invalidation below $218, hold through expiration day.
- Key risk: September 4 payrolls can produce a gap; defined risk limits exposure.
The 220/215 put spread offered only about +$1 EV with poor payoff, while the butterfly remained negative EV after costs. A 35%–55% realized-volatility forecast was also recorded.
Structures considered
| structure | entry cost | max profit | max loss | payoff ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Sep4 225/230 bull call spread | $189.00 | $311.00 | $-189.00 | 1.33 | chosen |
| NVDA Sep4 220/215 bull put spread | $-56.00 | $56.00 | $-444.00 | 0.19 | |
| NVDA Sep4 222.5/227.5/232.5 call butterfly | $135.50 | $364.50 | $-135.50 | 1.12 |
Sources
- alpaca_news —
inbox/new_20260902T173200Z_alpaca_news_b39223f9
Position details
Legs
| side | qty | symbol |
|---|---|---|
| long | 30 | NVDA260904C00225000 |
| short | 30 | NVDA260904C00230000 |
Exit rules
| rule | detail |
|---|---|
| stop_loss | basis position_mark, threshold -60.0% |
| profit_target | basis position_mark, threshold 75.0% |
| time_stop | days_before_expiry 0 |
| underlying_stop | direction below, level 218.0 |
Outcome
Closed: external
Why: in our records, absent at broker - no P&L observed at close
Result: not observed at close.