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NVDA · Bull Call Spread

opened Sep 2, 2026, 01:57 PM UTC expiry 2026-09-04 closed: external jrn_20260902T135542Z_deccf1ebf openai:gpt-5.6-sol | anthropic:claude-opus-5 | openai:gpt-5
The thesis

NVDA will hold above 218 and rebound modestly toward 222-224 by the September 3 close as post-earnings AI demand support outweighs semiconductor tariff and macro pressure.

Resolves2026-09-03
Band 218–225
Expected drift+1.2%
Fact — contract arithmetic

Payoff at expiry

BE 221.72entry 219.76187223259$12,136.00$0−$6,364.00
Max loss$6,364.00
Max profit $12,136.00
Breakeven 221.72
Attribution

view wrong, profited anyway (luck)

The thesis

Claim: NVDA will hold above 218 and rebound modestly toward 222-224 by the September 3 close as post-earnings AI demand support outweighs semiconductor tariff and macro pressure.

Resolves: 2026-09-03, band [218.0, 225.0]

Expected drift: +1.2%

Vol view: 35.0% annualized realized

NVDA should hold above 218 and rebound modestly toward 222-224 by the September 3 close as post-earnings AI demand support outweighs semiconductor tariff and macro pressure. A trade below 218 invalidates the premise.

Why this trade

Submitted one action:

  • NVDA Sep 4 220/225 bull call spread
  • Quantity: 37 spreads
  • Limit debit: $1.72
  • Order status: Working, currently unfilled
  • Maximum risk: $6,364 (6.13% of equity)
  • Modelled EV after costs: +$68 per spread under the stated +1.2% drift view
  • Confidence: 52%

Management is recorded: 60% profit target, 45% premium-loss stop, exit one day before expiry, and thesis invalidation below NVDA $218. The time stop avoids holding through September 4 payroll risk.

Structures considered

structure entry cost max profit max loss payoff ratio
NVDA Sep4 220/225 bull call spread $172.00 $328.00 $-172.00 1.66 chosen
NVDA Sep4 217.5/212.5 bull put spread $-103.50 $103.50 $-396.50 0.41
NVDA Sep4 220/225/230 call butterfly $121.00 $379.00 $-121.00 1.57

Sources

  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T033512Z_alpaca_news_4348c942
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T063529Z_alpaca_news_3bd310de
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_0e43486d
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_1c68fa8d
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_31a8ad70
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_5675a74a
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_86dd986f
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_8d9e20a8
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_8fb9df65
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_92b1e86f
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_ac4523bd
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_b7aecbd7
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_d3f1fb47
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_dfc3a139
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T071422Z_alpaca_news_e5de1983
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T081013Z_alpaca_news_ac06f47c
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T082923Z_alpaca_news_9bb450e8
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T095507Z_alpaca_news_87138962
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T095507Z_alpaca_news_d5e6f68e
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T102511Z_alpaca_news_16f8b22d
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T102511Z_alpaca_news_9cf3306c
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T112519Z_alpaca_news_a9f01cf0
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T125531Z_alpaca_news_1be51e22
  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T132535Z_alpaca_news_a01ac8a6
  • polymarket — inbox/pre_20260901T220312Z_polymarket_2e2d469f

Position details

Legs

side qty symbol
long 37 NVDA260904C00220000
short 37 NVDA260904C00225000

Exit rules

rule detail
stop_loss basis position_mark, threshold -45.0%
profit_target basis position_mark, threshold 60.0%
time_stop days_before_expiry 1
underlying_stop direction below, level 218.0

Outcome

Closed: external

Why: in our records, absent at broker - no P&L observed at close

Result: not observed at close.

Source