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NVDA · Bull Call Spread

opened Sep 2, 2026, 02:44 PM UTC expiry 2026-09-04 closed: external jrn_20260902T144306Z_dec4584c9 openai:gpt-5.6-sol | anthropic:claude-opus-5 | openai:gpt-5
The thesis

From $224.15, NVDA will hold its post-earnings support above $218 and close between $222 and $232 on September 4, with modest upside toward $227 as AI-demand support outweighs macro pressure.

Resolves2026-09-04
Band 222–232
Expected drift+1.3%
Fact — contract arithmetic

Payoff at expiry

BE 226.51entry 224.15191228265$16,752.00$0−$7,248.00
Max loss$7,248.00
Max profit $16,752.00
Breakeven 226.51
Attribution

view right, structure right

The thesis

Claim: From $224.15, NVDA will hold its post-earnings support above $218 and close between $222 and $232 on September 4, with modest upside toward $227 as AI-demand support outweighs macro pressure.

Resolves: 2026-09-04, band [222.0, 232.0]

Expected drift: +1.3%

Vol view: 40.0% annualized realized

From $224.15, NVDA should hold post-earnings support above $218 and close between $222 and $232 on September 4, with modest upside toward $227 as AI-demand support outweighs macro pressure. A trade below $218 invalidates the premise.

Why this trade

Opened 48 NVDA Sep 4 $225/$230 bull call spreads.

  • Fill: $1.51 debit
  • Capital at risk: $7,248 maximum
  • Maximum profit: $16,752
  • Breakeven: $226.51 at expiry
  • Thesis: NVDA holds above $218 and closes September 4 between $222–$232, with upside toward $227
  • Confidence: 49%
  • Sizing: 48 contracts, as prescribed by size_position
  • Exit rules: +100% profit target, −60% premium stop, underlying invalidation below $218, hold through September 4 expiry
  • Key risk: September 4 payrolls and geopolitical gap risk

I also recorded the associated 40% realized-volatility forecast for calibration.

Structures considered

structure entry cost max profit max loss payoff ratio
225/230 bull call spread $149.50 $350.50 $-149.50 1.94 chosen
Long 225 call $220.00 unknown $-220.00 2.67
220/217.5 bull put spread $-46.00 $46.00 $-204.00 0.21

Sources

  • alpaca_news — inbox/new_20260902T144303Z_alpaca_news_4e50e05b

Position details

Legs

side qty symbol
long 48 NVDA260904C00225000
short 48 NVDA260904C00230000

Exit rules

rule detail
stop_loss basis position_mark, threshold -60.0%
profit_target basis position_mark, threshold 100.0%
time_stop days_before_expiry 0
underlying_stop direction below, level 218.0

Outcome

Closed: external

Why: in our records, absent at broker - no P&L observed at close

Result: not observed at close.

Source